Dmitry Shuvaev, Development Director of the industrial mining operator BitCluster, notes that miners may suffer more from halving:
“It is important to understand that Bitcoin halving will primarily affect the income of miners. If the currency price remains unchanged, the profitability will drop by half. We must take into account the complexity of the network, which has increased by 58% since June 2019. By May 2020, we expect from + 60% to + 120% to the difficulty from the current level (depending on the dynamics of the exchange rate during this period). “
At the moment, with the BTC rate of $ 8700, the cost of mining one bitcoin with the Innosilicon T3 – 50Th / s device is $ 5500. The estimated cost of mining 1 BTC with Innosilicon T3 – 50Th / s devices in May 2020 will be $ 10,000-11,000. In order for the rate of return of mining to remain at the current level, after halving, the cost of BTC must be at least $ 18,000.
The cryptocurrency market is still too young. At the moment, there are not enough historical market events accumulated to build accurate correlations and make accurate forecasts. Yes, reducing the reward for miners can lead to a decrease in the volume sold by miners, which in turn will create an imbalance between supply and demand. This can really contribute to a sharp rise in price, but, as we can see from the example of Litecoin – the surges are temporary and may be caused by completely different events. “
In his opinion, many factors influence the rate of the cryptocurrency – from the launch of futures to the statements of the authorities. That is why one cannot expect that another rally will follow the new halving. As practice shows, the cryptomarket most often reacts in the opposite way to expected events.
Suffice it to recall the hype around the launch of the platform for institutional investors Bakkt – remembering the rapid growth of the exchange rate in December 2017 after the launch of Bitcoin futures, a new “native” was predicted for the main cryptocurrency. However, in reality, everything turned out differently – after the opening of the first fully regulated platform for trading bitcoin futures, BTC lost almost $ 1000 in price.
